20 poker odds and probabilities you should know
- Premium hands
The chances of getting a top starting hand (of double aces, picture pairs or A-K suited), is a minute 2.1%. Hold out for one of these and you’ll never get started.
- Feeling flush?
If you’ve got a flush draw (one card short of a full flush) after the flop, you’ll make your hand 34.97% of the time. That’s just over a third.
- “But they were suited!”
Don’t play any two cards just because they’re suited. It only improves your hand by 2.5%.
- Paired up
The chance of one of your hole cards making a pair on the flop is 32.43%, or about a third.
- Hitting the board
By the river, your chances of making a pair go up to roughly a half.
- Straight talking
If you flop an open-ended straight draw this gives you eight outs (eight possible cards that will complete the hand), so you’ll hit your hand by the river 31.5% of the time. Just make sure you’re getting pot odds (the value of the pot versus the value of your bet) to see the next card.
- Three of a kind
If you already have a pair, the odds of flopping a set (three of a kind) are only 7.5/1 – so make sure you only play small pairs cheaply, and only if the pot is worth it.
- Inside straight
Rarely worth drawing to, with the turn and river cards to come you’ll hit your gutshot straight (four outs) approximately 9% of the time.
- Over-pair
When two pairs go head to head, the bigger pair will win roughly 80% of the time (or four times out of five). So if you’ve got queens, and see a bet, raise and re-raise in front of you, you might be up against aces, kings, or possibly both. Time to fold.
- Perfect cards
If you need two exact cards on the turn and river, the chance of getting them both is only 0.3%. If you get one, there’s a 4.55% chance of getting the other.
- It’s a race
A pair against two overcards is often called a coin-flip or race, because they each win about half the time. If the overcards are suited, the pair will win 46%-54% of the time, if not, 48%-57% of the time.
- Kicker trouble
If your top card matches the other person’s, but your kicker is smaller (for example, queen against either ace or king, you’ve only got a 24% chance of winning (or about one in four).
- Suited connectors
People talk about middle suited connectors being better than aces, because of the straight and flush possibilities. But if you’re holding the aces, don’t panic – the over-pair will beat the suited connectors approximately 80% of the time.
- Pocket pair
It might not feel like it, but you’ll be dealt a pocket pair on average once every 17 hands, or about 6% of the time.
- Flush up
There’s a reason for folding low hands. Even if they’re suited, the chance of flopping a flush is only 0.8% – or 124/1.
- Two by two
The probability of flopping two-pair (from non-paired hole cards) is about 2%.
- Full house I
If you do get two pair on the flop, the chances of making at least a full house by the river is 16.74%.
- Full house II
But if you flop three-of-a-kind, the odds of making a full house or better by the river go up to 33.4%, or one in three.
- Live cards
You bluffed with random cards to steal the blinds and were called by A-K. Oops! Actually, your random lower cards will win about 35% of the time.
- Don’t get hooked
Pocket jacks is known as a big danger hand in Texas Hold’em. It may look good, but the chances of a higher card turning up on the flop is 52%, giving your ‘fish-hooks’ less than half a chance of survival.
Source: https://www.partypoker.com/en/how-to-play/strategy/poker-odds